The Effect of Childhood Environment on Political Behavior

Abstract:

We estimate the effect of childhood environment on future political behavior. Linking national voter files to Census Bureau and commercial address data, we compare children who moved between the same counties but at different ages. Growing up in a county where their peers are 10 p.p. more likely to affiliate with the Republican Party makes children 4.7 p.p. more likely to do so. The effects are similar for Democratic affiliation and slightly larger for registration and turnout. Exposure during adolescence is especially influential and effects decay slightly after the first election. They reflect both state-level factors and more local forces.