Notes by Other Researchers

This page hosts notes, comments, analyses and newspaper articles by other individual researchers or research groups.

By Andrew Atkeson
Details and simulation of one of the first dynamic models of the contagion integrating an epidemiologic structure (susceptible, infected, recovered; SIR) and an economic one. The bottom line is similar to the one offered by the Imperial College Response Team, pointing to possible new waves of contagion if the social distancing measures are lifted too quickly.

By Giorgio Barba Navaretti, Giacomo Calzolari, Andrea Dossena, Alessandro Lanza, Alberto Pozzolo (in Italian)
Identifies, using two measures of economic interdipendence (IO matrix and a more detailed graph describing the various value chains), those sectors whose opening would have a larger inpact in restarting the Italian economy.

By Lorenzo Bini Smaghi (in Italian)
A newspaper article that clarifies advantages and disadvantages concerning the ESM and the related Covid facility, and argues that economic arguments hardly justify any opposition to its use; appeared in the newspaper il Foglio

By Martin Eichenbaum, Sergio Rebelo, Mathias Trabandt
Integrates the epidemiologic model (susceptible-infected-recovered; SIR) with a macro model, arguing that the competitive equilibrium is inefficient and the optimal policy involves restricting consumption and work, alleviating the number of deaths at the expense of a deeper recession.

By Carlo Favero
An epidemiologic model (susceptible,exposed, infected, resistant) combined with a capacity constraint on ICU, which makes the mortality dependent on the available ICU relative to the number of severe infections, calibrated on Lombardy data, to assess the evolution of the contagion and the effect of the social distancing measures implemented.

By Carlo Favero, Andrea Ichino and Aldo Rustichini
An epidemiologic model (susceptible,exposed, infected, resistant) embedding a capacity constraint on ICU and differenciating the basic reproduction number by age class, employment status and economic sector, to characterize the efficient frontier, in terms of deaths and GDP losses, of the containment policies.

By Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas
An analysis of the economic consequences of the pandemic crisis and of the tools to address it.

By Ali Hortacsu, Jarni Liu and Timoty Schwieg
Provides estimates for the unobserved rate of infection, based on assumptions about travel between the epicenter and a target zone, considering various US zones.

By Julian Kozwloski, Laura Veldkamp and Venky Venkateswaran
Highlights a persistent effect on the probability of tail events associated with the realization of the COVID-19 shock, and explores the consequences of this scarring effect on the persistence of its economic consequences.

By the Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team

• The results of a micro-simulation, epidemiological model, documenting the spread of the contagion and the effectiveness – or lack thereof – of various measures of social distancing. Highlights the likelihood of multiple waves of contagion, unless strict measures of social distancing are kept in place until a vaccine is available.

• Another micro simulation showing, for each country, the predicted number of contagion and deaths, as well as the effects of mitigation and suppression policies.

• A third exercise, focusing on European countries, computing the number of infected starting from observed deaths and quantifying the effects of mitigation and suppression policies.

• A fourth exercise, focusing on Italy with details for the Italian regions, using Google data on mobility to estimate the number of deaths avoided by lockdown policies and a simulation of the additional deaths and infection contagion resulting from a partial lifting of such policies, absent other containment policies. 

By Charles Manski and Francesca Molinari
Provides range estimates for the unobserved rate of infection, based on partial identification theory, for Illinois, New York and Italy.

By Tomas Pueyo
A series of three articles, offering an informed and sobering account on the spread of the contagion and on the measures to contain it, with lots of useful data and links.