Climate Politics in the United States

Abstract:

We investigate the demand and supply drivers of climate politics in the United States of the last twenty years.  Using geocoded precinct-level electoral results, we trace the effect of climate shocks and climate change-related job losses/gains on both voting across US congressional districts between 2000 and 2018 (the demand side) and the endogenous choice of climate positions by House candidates (the supply side). Using within-congressional district variation, we identify a significant effect of unusually high temperature shocks on votes and of losses of brown jobs in favor of Democratic candidates. We also find that both Democratic and Republican candidates respond to climate shocks shifting voters' demand by adjusting their environmental platforms towards pro-environment policy and that Democratic candidates also adjust based on their own personal beliefs shifting as a consequence of a local climate shock.