Unified Growth Empirics

Abstract:

In this paper we investigate the patterns of long-term determinants in a panel of 60 countries over the period 1880-2000. We study a prototype micro-funded unified growth model of the economic and demographic transition that allows to simulate the evolution of the economy over long periods of time. Some (deep) country specific parameters are pin down in the spirit of structural estimation. The quantitative model is used to simulate an artificial world that produces the endogenous overtime evolution of life expectancy, fertility, education and economic development over the period 0-2000 A.D. The analysis allows to evaluate the fit of the model to actual panel data for the last 120 years and to perform controlled (counterfactual) exercises. Finally, in a first attempt to link deep and proximate determinants, we investigate the time invariant (e.g. geo-climatological) empirical determinants of the estimated deep parameters.