Malaria Risk and Civil Violence (with Matteo Cervellati, Elena Esposito and Simona Valmori)

Abstract:
Using geo-referenced data for Africa we investigate the role of temporary health shocks, related to the risk of malaria epidemics, for civil violence. Following the epidemiological literature, we identify climatological conditions that exhibit elevated risk for malaria outbreaks at the cell-year and cell-month level. Identification exploits the contrast of the occurrence of these conditions in cells with low malaria exposure and cells with high malaria exposure. In the low exposure areas, the population has lower genetic and acquired immunities, relative to cells with no or very high exposure. Consequently, it is hypothesized that the impact of suitable weather conditions on the likelihood of malaria outbreaks is amplified in these cells. Due to the short incubation time, malaria outbreaks can be identified at high temporal resolution. Exploiting within cell variability both at yearly and monthly frequencies, the analysis can account for unobserved heterogeneity by including a rich set of time and cell controls, including cell x year specific determinants of civil conflicts and seasonal patterns within the year. The results suggest that the occurrence of unusually suitable conditions for malaria outbreaks in cells with low malaria exposure significantly increases the likelihood of civil violence compared to cells with high malaria exposure. The results are robust to a comprehensive set of checks.