The (Un)Importance of Being 25: a Regression Discontinuity Approach to the Paradox of Voting

Abstract:

This work provides a novel quasi-experimental test of a key prediction of rational choice and rule-utilitarian models of turnout behavior, namely, that the more likely electors are to affect the outcome of an election, the more likely they are to vote. Using individual level turnout data, we exploit the existence of two voting age thresholds for Italian national elections (18 for the House of Representatives, 25 for the Senate) to assess whether voters above the Senate voting age threshold display a higher turnout rate than subjects below it. In contrast to models of turnout which focus on pivotality, we find no evidence of any discontinuity in turnout using a variety of RDD specifications and robustness checks.