Frequently Updated Forecasts

This page hosts descriptive statistical analyses and frequently updated forecasts of key variables characterizing the evolution of the pandemic. Methodologies include structural epidemiological modelling and purely statistical methods.

By Arianna Agosto, Alexandra Campmas, Paolo Giudici and Andrea Renda
A statistical model to monitor the evolution of the COVID-19 epidemics, for a number of European countries. For more details on the methodology, see also Arianna Agosto and Paolo Giudici.

By Luigi Brugnano and Felice Iavernaro
Forecasts for Italy and macro regions, based on SIR models (for the whole country and multiregion). Forecasts for Spain are also available.

By Giovanni Cerulli
Forecasts of the date in which the expected number of new cases will drop to zero, based on an autoregressive model estimated with machine learning techniques.

By Franco Peracchi
A note with descriptive statistics of the Italian data on the pandemic and a statistically based forecast of the date in which the number of new positive cases is zero, for the country as a whole and for each region with sufficiently informative data.

By StatGroup-19 (Fabio Divino, Alessio Farcomeni, Giovanna Jona Lasinio, Gianfranco Lovison, Antonello Maruotti)
Regional forecasts (click on the tab: Modeling), for a number of variables (total cases, hospitalized, ICU, deaths), with a brief description of the methodology. In the neighboring tab, short term ICU occupation forecasts, with a brief description of the methodology.