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UID:98d5a4012b37024521e8222c0e17d2b4
CATEGORIES:Seminars
CREATED:20180530T123017
SUMMARY:Lunch Seminar: Treb Allen - Dartmouth College 
DESCRIPTION;ENCODING=QUOTED-PRINTABLE:\n\nThe Geography of Path Dependence (joint with Dave Donaldson)\n\n\nAbstr
 act:\nHow much of the distribution of economic activity today is determined
  by history rather than by geographic fundamentals? And if history matters,
  does it matter much? We develop an empirical framework that enables answer
 s to these questions. Our model combines a workhorse model of trade subject
  to geographic frictions with an overlapping generations model of labor mob
 ility also subject to spatial fractions. Both production and consumption po
 tentially exhibit local agglomeration and congestion externalities. We deri
 ve parameter conditions, for arbitrary static and dynamic geographic scenar
 ios, under which equilibrium transition paths are unique and yet steady sta
 tes may nevertheless be non-unique that is, where initial conditions (“hist
 ory”) determine long-run steady-state outcomes (“path dependence”). We then
  estimate the model’s parameters (which govern the strength of agglomeratio
 n externalities and trade and migration frictions), by focusing on moment c
 onditions that are robust to potential equilibrium multiplicity, using spat
 ial variation across US counties from 1800 to the present. At these paramet
 er estimates our simulations - based on randomly reassigning the geographic
 al incidence of various shocks among members of similar regional clusters -
  imply the long arm of history has only small consequences for the distorti
 ons caused by spatial path dependence.\n
DTSTAMP:20260407T060404Z
DTSTART:20180607T130000Z
DTEND:20180607T140000Z
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