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UID:a60fc5e8c63b934aff9e79cf520de43b
CATEGORIES:Seminars
CREATED:20180103T155039
SUMMARY:Nicola Gennaioli - Università Commerciale Luigi Bocconi 
DESCRIPTION;ENCODING=QUOTED-PRINTABLE:Overreaction in Macroeconomic Expectations (with Pedro Bordalo, Yueran Ma, 
 and Andrei Shleifer)\nAbstract:\nWe examine the rationality of individual a
 nd consensus professional forecasts of macroeconomic and financial variable
 s using the methodology of Coibion and Gorodnichenko (2015), which focuses 
 on the predictability of forecast errors from earlier forecast revisions. W
 e document two principal findings: at the individual level, forecasters typ
 ically over-react to information, while consensus forecasts exhibit under-r
 eaction. To reconcile these findings, we combine the diagnostic expectation
 s model of belief formation from Bordalo, Gennaioli, and Shleifer (2018) wi
 th Woodford’s (2003) noisy information model of belief aggregation. The mod
 el accounts for the findings, but also yields a number of new implications 
 related to the forward looking nature of diagnostic expectations, which we 
 also test and confirm. Finally, we compare our model to mechanical extrapol
 ation, rational inattention, and natural expectations.  \n
DTSTAMP:20260405T192353Z
DTSTART:20180312T164500Z
DTEND:20180312T180000Z
SEQUENCE:0
TRANSP:OPAQUE
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