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UID:a60fc5e8c63b934aff9e79cf520de43b
CATEGORIES:Seminars
CREATED:20180103T155039
SUMMARY:Nicola Gennaioli - Università Commerciale Luigi Bocconi 
DESCRIPTION;ENCODING=QUOTED-PRINTABLE:<p style="margin-right: -0.05pt; text-align: justify;"><strong>Overreaction
  in Macroeconomic Expectations </strong>(with Pedro Bordalo, Yueran Ma, and
  Andrei Shleifer)</p><p style="margin-right: -0.05pt; text-align: justify;"
 ><strong>Abstract:</strong></p><p style="text-align: justify;">We examine t
 he rationality of individual and consensus professional forecasts of macroe
 conomic and financial variables using the methodology of Coibion and Gorodn
 ichenko (2015), which focuses on the predictability of forecast errors from
  earlier forecast revisions. We document two principal findings: at the ind
 ividual level, forecasters typically over-react to information, while conse
 nsus forecasts exhibit under-reaction. To reconcile these findings, we comb
 ine the diagnostic expectations model of belief formation from Bordalo, Gen
 naioli, and Shleifer (2018) with Woodford’s (2003) noisy information model 
 of belief aggregation. The model accounts for the findings, but also yields
  a number of new implications related to the forward looking nature of diag
 nostic expectations, which we also test and confirm. Finally, we compare ou
 r model to mechanical extrapolation, rational inattention, and natural expe
 ctations.  </p>
DTSTAMP:20260405T192540Z
DTSTART:20180312T164500Z
DTEND:20180312T180000Z
SEQUENCE:0
TRANSP:OPAQUE
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