BEGIN:VCALENDAR
VERSION:2.0
PRODID:-//jEvents 2.0 for Joomla//EN
CALSCALE:GREGORIAN
METHOD:PUBLISH
BEGIN:VEVENT
UID:b13ceedfe0a01d037a51880bd42e318c
CATEGORIES:Seminars
CREATED:20171229T172311
SUMMARY:Christoph Trebesch - Kiel University
DESCRIPTION;ENCODING=QUOTED-PRINTABLE:200 Years of Sovereign Haircuts and Bond Returns (with Josefin Meyer and Ca
 rmen Reinhart)\nAbstract: \nHow do creditors fare in sovereign debt markets
 ? In particular, when do they suffer losses on their bond holdings? These q
 uestion have regained crucial relevance for investors and policymakers, in 
 particular in advanced economies. In this paper, we take a long-run perspec
 tive and compute investor returns and investor losses (haircuts) in soverei
 gn debt markets since 1815 and worldwide. To our knowledge, this is the mos
 t comprehensive dataset on sovereign bonds and debt crises ever compiled. T
 he results provide unique new insights on the asset class of sovereign debt
  and put recent crisis experiences in emerging markets and in the Eurozone 
 into historical perspective. The average long-run real return on emerging m
 arket sovereign bonds is about 6-7% over the past 200 years. This is signif
 icantly higher than the return on advanced country domestic sovereign bonds
  and resembles the return and volatility profile of domestic equities. With
  regard to creditor losses (haircuts) we find that their size and variation
  is strikingly similar over time, despite changes in institutions, financia
 l markets and economic fundamentals since the 19th century. Cases of outrig
 ht debt repudiation and bond price crashes (haircuts or price drops of more
  than 90 percent) are surprisingly rare. We also find that creditor losses 
 are often quickly recovered.\n
DTSTAMP:20260405T212958Z
DTSTART:20171207T170000Z
DTEND:20171207T183000Z
SEQUENCE:0
TRANSP:OPAQUE
END:VEVENT
END:VCALENDAR