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UID:4d706b040179f9393773cc533a0a84ff
CATEGORIES:Seminars
CREATED:20170421T184408
SUMMARY:Elias Papaioannou - London Business School
DESCRIPTION;ENCODING=QUOTED-PRINTABLE:Land Mines and Spatial Development (with Giorgio Chiovelli and Stelios Mich
 alopoulos)\nAbstract:\n We explore the economic consequences of demining fo
 r both the affected districts and to the Mozambican economy as a whole afte
 r collecting and digitizing data covering close to the universe of demining
  activities in the country.\n Our analysis proceeds in four steps. First, w
 e describe the self-collected and cross-validated data on the spatial distr
 ibution of land mines and unexploded ordnances (UXOs) at the end of the civ
 il war (1992); we then provide fine geo-referenced information on land mine
  clearance operations. Thus we are able to provide to the Mozambican govern
 ment, the United Nations and the various NGOs involved in the demining proc
 ess, a (almost) complete documentation of this gigantic process that lasted
  more than two decades.\n Second, we exploit time variation in the demining
  process -that appears to be largely non-coordinated and non-strategically 
 planned- to assess its impact on economic activity, as reflected on satelli
 te images on light density at night. In this regard, we estimate “differenc
 e-in-difference” specifications, that compare the evolution of local develo
 pment in areas (Mozambican municipalities), where demining took place in a 
 given period, to municipalities that either had no land mines at the end of
  the civil war or municipalities that were mined but had not been cleared. 
 The analysis reveals small-to-moderate effects of the removal of land mines
  on local economic development, as reflected in luminosity. We also examine
  heterogeneous effects in an effort to shed light on the mechanisms and gui
 de policy on demining activities at other parts of the world. Our tentative
  evidence points out that demining is associated with large gains when it t
 argets roads-railroads, areas with non-negligible population densities, and
  towns serving as local trade hubs.\n Third, employing recently developed t
 echniques in quantitative trade literature, we examine the economy-wide imp
 lications of land mine removals. This is crucial as there are spillovers, g
 eneral equilibrium effects, from the removal of land mines in one district 
 to others. Accounting for spillovers and estimating the economy-wide effect
 s of land mine clearance is also key for policy, as the interest is typical
 ly on the aggregate impact. Our approach combines information on the evolut
 ion of land mine clearance with the transportation network (roads, railroad
 s and rivers) at independence. We apply a “market access” approach that qua
 ntifies the aggregate effects of land mines (and their subsequent removals)
  on spatial development. This method, which is derived from general equilib
 rium trade theory under flexible and widely-used assumptions, is well-suite
 d to our research inquiry and application, as it allows us to shed light bo
 th on the direct and the indirect effects (stemming from changes in the net
 work structure) of land mine clearance and opening of roads and railroads o
 n economic activity. The “market access” estimates reveal an economically l
 arge and statistically precise impact of land mines removal on aggregate ec
 onomic development.\n To push on the causal interpretation of our estimates
 , we associate changes in development (luminosity) to changes in “market ac
 cess” coming from land mines cleared outside a buffer zone of 50 or even 10
 0 kilometers; this minimizes concerns that NGOs and local agencies target d
 istricts those with high economic potential. We then report results linking
  changes in regional development and changes in market access in the set of
  Mozambican regions without any minefield and UXO contamination at the end 
 of the civil war. For these districts, changes in market access stem solely
  from land-mine clearance in other regions. The correlation between regiona
 l development and market access is quite strong and the estimates are quant
 itatively similar to those derived in the full sample.\n Fourth, combining 
 the spatial general equilibrium model of intra-country trade and the econom
 etric estimates, we run counterfactual policy simulations that allow us est
 imating the likely gains of demining if it was centrally coordinated and pl
 anned targeting the key colonial development “corridors” or the roads and r
 ailroads connecting the three main ports. We also approximate the gains if 
 demining was “optimally” targeting the main hubs of the infrastructure syst
 em. Our analysis reveals large losses from lack of central planning and str
 ategic coordination among the demining operators.\n
DTSTAMP:20260406T024415Z
DTSTART:20161205T173000Z
DTEND:20161205T190000Z
SEQUENCE:0
TRANSP:OPAQUE
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