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UID:bcc4d55d431562bcb1ac6ca884c656f1
CATEGORIES:Seminars
CREATED:20150504T181734
SUMMARY:Matthias Thoenig - HEC Lausanne
DESCRIPTION;ENCODING=QUOTED-PRINTABLE:This mine is mine! How minerals fuel conflicts in Africa\nAbstract:\nThis p
 aper studies empirically the impact of mining on conflicts in Africa. Using
  novel data, we combine geo-referenced information over the 1997-2010 perio
 d on the location and characteristics of violent events and mining extracti
 on of 27 minerals. Working with a grid covering all African countries at a 
 spatial resolution of 0.5x0.5 degree, we find a sizeable impact of mining a
 ctivity on the probability/intensity of conflict at the local level. This i
 s both true for low-level violence (riots, protests), as well as for organi
 zed violence (battles). Our main identification strategy exploits exogenous
  variations in the minerals' world prices; however the results are robust t
 o various alternative strategies, both in the cross-section and panel dimen
 sions. Our estimates suggest that the historical rise in mineral prices obs
 erved over the period has contributed to up to 21 percent of the average co
 untry-level violence in Africa. The second part of the paper investigates w
 hether minerals, by increasing the financial capacities of fighting groups,
  contribute to diffuse violence over time and space, therefore affecting th
 e intensity and duration of wars. We find direct evidence that the appropri
 ation of a mining area by a group increases the probability that this group
  perpetrates future violence elsewhere. This is consistent with "feasibilit
 y" theories of conflict. We also find that secessionist insurgencies are mo
 re likely in mining areas, which is in line with recent theories of secessi
 onist conflict. \n
DTSTAMP:20260404T075720Z
DTSTART:20150511T173000Z
DTEND:20150511T190000Z
SEQUENCE:0
TRANSP:OPAQUE
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