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UID:c8bb26ea0db5c821f7628ba0938fc0e5
CATEGORIES:Seminars
CREATED:20250417T095653
SUMMARY:Lunch Seminar: Maurizio Zanardi - University of Sussex
DESCRIPTION;ENCODING=QUOTED-PRINTABLE:\n\nThe Legacy of Conflict on Trade Negotiations\n\n\nAbstract:\nThe prolif
 eration of preferential trade agreements (PTAs) since the early 1990s has l
 ed to a large literature on their implications for the multilateral trade s
 ystem. At the same time, the potential peace-creation effect of economic in
 tegration has also been investigated, with evidence consistent with the hyp
 othesis that larger bilateral trade flows decrease the probability of inter
 state conflict. In this paper, we examine for the first time whether confli
 ct affects the duration of trade negotiations. Past conflict might reduce t
 rust between prospective PTA partners but might, at the same time, induce s
 peedier negotiations in order to benefit from the peace-creation effect of 
 a PTA. Using a unique dataset on the history of formation of a large number
  of PTAs over the period 1980--2015, we find robust evidence in support of 
 the second hypothesis: country pairs with past history of conflict present 
 a much higher hazard rate in comparison with country pairs with no history 
 of conflict. However, the effect is weaker when the economic motives for in
 tegration are more pronounced.\n\n\n \n
DTSTAMP:20260406T175603Z
DTSTART:20250423T130000Z
DTEND:20250423T140000Z
SEQUENCE:0
TRANSP:OPAQUE
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