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BEGIN:VEVENT
UID:c8bb26ea0db5c821f7628ba0938fc0e5
CATEGORIES:Seminars
CREATED:20250417T095653
SUMMARY:Lunch Seminar: Maurizio Zanardi - University of Sussex
DESCRIPTION;ENCODING=QUOTED-PRINTABLE:<p><strong><em>The Legacy of Conflict on Trade Negotiations</em></strong></
 p><p>Abstract:</p><p style="text-align: justify;">The proliferation of pref
 erential trade agreements (PTAs) since the early 1990s has led to a large l
 iterature on their implications for the multilateral trade system. At the s
 ame time, the potential peace-creation effect of economic integration has a
 lso been investigated, with evidence consistent with the hypothesis that la
 rger bilateral trade flows decrease the probability of interstate conflict.
  In this paper, we examine for the first time whether conflict affects the 
 duration of trade negotiations. Past conflict might reduce trust between pr
 ospective PTA partners but might, at the same time, induce speedier negotia
 tions in order to benefit from the peace-creation effect of a PTA. Using a 
 unique dataset on the history of formation of a large number of PTAs over t
 he period 1980--2015, we find robust evidence in support of the second hypo
 thesis: country pairs with past history of conflict present a much higher h
 azard rate in comparison with country pairs with no history of conflict. Ho
 wever, the effect is weaker when the economic motives for integration are m
 ore pronounced.</p><p>&nbsp;</p>
DTSTAMP:20260406T192541Z
DTSTART:20250423T130000Z
DTEND:20250423T140000Z
SEQUENCE:0
TRANSP:OPAQUE
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