The Legacy of Conflict on Trade Negotiations
Abstract:
The proliferation of pref erential trade agreements (PTAs) since the early 1990s has led to a large l iterature on their implications for the multilateral trade system. At the s ame time, the potential peace-creation effect of economic integration has a lso been investigated, with evidence consistent with the hypothesis that la rger bilateral trade flows decrease the probability of interstate conflict. In this paper, we examine for the first time whether conflict affects the duration of trade negotiations. Past conflict might reduce trust between pr ospective PTA partners but might, at the same time, induce speedier negotia tions in order to benefit from the peace-creation effect of a PTA. Using a unique dataset on the history of formation of a large number of PTAs over t he period 1980--2015, we find robust evidence in support of the second hypo thesis: country pairs with past history of conflict present a much higher h azard rate in comparison with country pairs with no history of conflict. Ho wever, the effect is weaker when the economic motives for integration are m ore pronounced.
DTSTAMP:20260406T175620Z DTSTART:20250410T080000Z DTEND:20250410T170000Z SEQUENCE:0 TRANSP:OPAQUE END:VEVENT END:VCALENDAR