This mine is m ine! How minerals fuel conflicts in Africa
Abstract:
This paper studies empirically the impact of minin g on conflicts in Africa. Using novel data, we combine geo-referenced infor mation over the 1997-2010 period on the location and characteristics of vio lent events and mining extraction of 27 minerals. Working with a grid cover ing all African countries at a spatial resolution of 0.5x0.5 degree, we fin d a sizeable impact of mining activity on the probability/intensity of conf lict at the local level. This is both true for low-level violence (riots, p rotests), as well as for organized violence (battles). Our main identificat ion strategy exploits exogenous variations in the minerals' world prices; h owever the results are robust to various alternative strategies, both in th e cross-section and panel dimensions. Our estimates suggest that the histor ical rise in mineral prices observed over the period has contributed to up to 21 percent of the average country-level violence in Africa. The second p art of the paper investigates whether minerals, by increasing the financial capacities of fighting groups, contribute to diffuse violence over time an d space, therefore affecting the intensity and duration of wars. We find di rect evidence that the appropriation of a mining area by a group increases the probability that this group perpetrates future violence elsewhere. This is consistent with "feasibility" theories of conflict. We also find that s ecessionist insurgencies are more likely in mining areas, which is in line with recent theories of secessionist conflict.
DTSTAMP:20260404T090335Z DTSTART:20150511T173000Z DTEND:20150511T190000Z SEQUENCE:0 TRANSP:OPAQUE END:VEVENT END:VCALENDAR