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UID:a475d1072058d3183baa63bd554210cc
CATEGORIES:Seminars
CREATED:20260318T064525
SUMMARY:Lunch Seminar: Jacob Bradley - University of Nottingham
DESCRIPTION;ENCODING=QUOTED-PRINTABLE:\n\nIdentifying Selection and Duration Dependence Using Elicited Beliefs\n\
 n\nAbstract:\nEmployment separation hazards decline with tenure, but the fo
 rces behind this pattern are not fully understood. It may reflect dynamic s
 election, as low-quality matches end early and surviving jobs are increasin
 gly composed of better matches, or structural duration dependence, as separ
 ation risk declines within an ongoing match. We show that, under plausible 
 conditions, the two mechanisms are observationally equivalent based on conv
 entional duration data alone. They differ, however, in how heterogeneity in
  separation risk changes over tenure. Although this heterogeneity is not ty
 pically observable in standard transition data, elicited separation probabi
 lities are informative about it. We use these beliefs, observed in harmoniz
 ed survey data from 11 euro area countries and the United States, to identi
 fy the relative importance of each channel. To do so, we develop a quantita
 tive model in which workers learn about match quality from noisy signals wh
 ile separation risk may also decline within a match. The model delivers clo
 sed-form posterior beliefs over match-specific separation rates, thereby ma
 king the distinction between dynamic selection and structural duration depe
 ndence analytically transparent.\n
DTSTAMP:20260414T180219Z
DTSTART:20260414T130000Z
DTEND:20260414T140000Z
SEQUENCE:0
TRANSP:OPAQUE
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