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UID:07b3678a3db38226dfabe29e20aaf58d
CATEGORIES:Seminars
CREATED:20150105T163042
SUMMARY:Mirko Draca - University of Warwick
DESCRIPTION;ENCODING=QUOTED-PRINTABLE:The Changing Returns to Crime: How Do Criminals Respond to Changes in Goods
  Prices?\nAbstract:\nEconomic models of crime argue that changing economic 
 incentives can alter participation of individuals in criminal activities. W
 e study what happens when the prices of goods change, arguing that this can
  alter individuals’ expected returns from crime, as criminals may switch be
 tween stealing less and more expensive goods as relative prices change. We 
 use detailed monthly data on burglaries, thefts and robberies in London fro
 m the Metropolitan Police Service between January 2002 and December 2012, w
 here the key data feature we exploit is that we know what was stolen in the
  reported incidents. We link this to detailed product price data and estima
 te a significant positive crime elasticity with respect to prices from pane
 l data models that relate changes in stolen goods to changes in their price
 s. We also develop empirical models that relate changes in stolen goods to 
 changes in the price of that good and also to the prices of other goods and
  estimate significant cross-price elasticities which show that price shifts
  can cause potential criminals to substitute away from goods with a lower p
 rice (and associated lower return) to those with a higher price (and higher
  associated return).\n
DTSTAMP:20260405T123247Z
DTSTART:20140424T173000Z
DTEND:20140424T190000Z
SEQUENCE:0
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